Η άποψη Κρουγκμαν για την έξοδο από το ευρώΔημοσιεύθηκε: 16/05/2012
Ο κ Κρουγκμαν θεωρεί ότι πρέπει να φύγουμε από το Ευρώ
If Greece exits the euro, then what for the Greek economy? Nobody knows! But people do seem to know some things that aren’t so.
In particular, I keep reading that Argentina’s example is irrelevant, because Greece has hardly any exports. I don’t know where that comes from, but it just ain’t so. Here’s exports as as % of GDP, from the World Bank:
What is true is that Greece doesn’t export a lot of goods. But it exports a lot of services — shipping and tourism (pdf). How might these respond to the devaluation of the new drachma?
Shipping volumes presumably wouldn’t change much — but since the prices would be in euros and dollars, they’d be worth more relative to Greek GDP, so that would be a boost.
Tourism — well, cheaper hotels could attract a lot of British and German package tours, as long as the political situation isn’t that chaotic.
This isn’t a prediction that everything will be fine, but it is a caution that the pessimism about Greek prospects once the turmoil is past may be overdone.